Thursday, June 13, 2013

Conmebol Qualifiers Predictions

Conmebol (South America) World cup qualifiers are widely considered one of the most competitive Regions, if not the most competitive to qualify from. 10 teams play home and away games for a total of 18 grueling matches to decide who goes and who stays. This time is no different, though only 9 teams are participating since Brazil is the host country. With only 3-4 games remaining there are still teams fighting to make it, nowhere is the fight more competitive than for 5th place. Let us look at each team's chances starting from the top of the table.

ARGENTINA- Mathematically Argentina can still be eliminated. Realistically that won't happen. Their next game will be at Paraguay and a tie or other results will officially put Argentina in the World Cup. Questions still remain about their defense and defensive midfield, however they have a year to figure that out and an attack that features Messi, Di Maria, Aguero and Higuain will give them a good chance to make it far in Brazil.

COLOMBIA- After a strong tie at Buenos Aires and a convincing win at home against Peru, Colombia is on the verge of returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. With players like Falcao, Rodriguez, and Elite Goalkeeping from Ospina, Colombia might just make past the second round in Brazil.

ECUADOR- Though Ecuador only managed 1 point in their last 2 games and have only one remaining home game, their lead over 5th place is large enough to pencil them for Brazil as well. Ecuador problems lie in their defense and suspect goalkeeping, however they have a potent offense that is sure to carry them far in Brazil with the likes of Benitez, Caicedo and Valencia among others.

CHILE- At one point Chile was out of the running, but thanks to a coaching change Chile is the hottest team in qualifying right now and sits in 4th place with 21 points (same as Ecuador). Though they have though games remaining Chile at this point will also qualify and hopefully have a good showing in Brazil. Players like Alexis Sanchez, Fernandez and others are sure make them a though out no matter what group they are drawn in.
URUGUAY- Like Chile, Uruguay was at the bottom of the table until a dramatic win at Venezuela put them in 5th place and in control of their own destiny. With world class players like Suarez, Cavani and Forlan Uruguay is the most talented of the 3 teams fighting for this spot. A crucial game in Lima against Peru can define who will win this spot and continue fighting to make it to Brazil.

VENEZUELA- The only team in South America to have never qualify to the World Cup. Having lost to Uruguay at home have complicated their chances of making their first trip. However 2 of their last 3 games are at home including the Peru game which could define whether they can make their first World cup or not. Either way Venezuela has only grown as a soccer country and it seems inevitable that they will make a World Cup if not now in the near future.

PERU- Rich in soccer history, Peru has not made a World Cup since 1982. There is hope that this squad can change that still. In my opinion this team is as talented as the 85 squad that almost made it. With players like Guerrero, Pizarro, Farfan and others it would seem that Offense would be a strength, however Peru has only averaged 1 goal per game in qualifiers. If they are going to qualify they must grind out wins like they did against Chile and Ecuador. Two huge matches loom, first, home against Uruguay and then away at Venezuela. One thing is for sure, This is the closest Peru has been in contention in quite a while.

BOLIVIA- Though not yet eliminated, for all intends and purposes Bolivia will once again finish another disappointing campaign. What's worse is that there isn't much young talent that can give Bolivia a sense that the future might be brighter, however things may change in a couple of years.

PARAGUAY- Probably the most surprising of all has been the huge fall from South America's most consistent team. Paraguay could always be counted to fight for spot in the World cup campaign after campaign. This time it seems like drastic changes will have to take place if Paraguay is to contend for a spot in 2018.

Predictions- The top 4 teams in the table, Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and Chile are pretty much in. Bolivia and Paraguay are out. The only remaining question is the half spot between Uruguay Venezuela and Peru. This is a though one, as there are crucial games between these teams that will decide that last spot. Logic tells me that when in doubt you go with the more accomplished team, in this case Uruguay is my pick to get this last spot and fight it out with the 5th place team in Asia to go to Brazil. What do you think? comments and questions are welcomed.

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